The first poll linked to the 2025- 2026 election year is out on February 26 Afrobarometer, the Pan-African non-profit and non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African’s experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance and quality of life released a batch of data that should leave the ruling NRM party and president Yoweri Museveni happy, writes Stephen Bwire.
When asked which areas governments handling very well or fairy well.
| 1 | Preventing or resolving conflicts | 18.5% + 50.6% | ||
| 2 | Providing water and Sanitation | 19.1%+38.2% | ||
| 3 | Reducing crimes | 16.7%+41.9% | ||
| 4 | Providing electricity | 14.9%+39.9% | ||
| 5 | Educational needs | 13.1%+ 45.1% | ||
Areas the government is not handling very well
| 1 | Keeping prices stable | 3.9%+15.3% | ||
| 2 | Reducing gap between rich and poor | 4.7%+16.4% | ||
| 3 | Improving standards of living | 5.1%+33.2% | ||
| 4 | Fighting corruption | 5.6% +19.8% | ||
| 5 | Creating jobs | 7.7% +28.1% | ||
The Afrobarometer national partner in Uganda, Hatchile Consult Ltd, interviewed a nationally respective random, stratified probability sample of 2400 adult citizens, A sample of this size yields country -level results with a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
This is the 12th survey of this type that lishing on Uganda. The interviews were conducted between January 16 and February 01, last year and Afrobarometer has since October 2024 consistently released batches of data on specific areas of survey findings.
The data has good news for the NRM party and president Yoweri Museveni. When asked which particular political party they feel close to, most respondents at 41% said they feel close to the NRM
The National Unity Platform was a distant second at 9% FDC 3% UPC 1.5% and others 1% or less. Significantly, up to 36% of respondents said they do not feel close to any party they would vote for if national elections were held tomorrow up to 56% said NRM, 11% NUP, and 4% FDC. Up to 7% said they would not vote and 14% refused to answer.
In a related question, when asked how much they trusted each party only 8.6% said they trust NUP a lot, FDC 5.9% UPC 4.7%, DP 3.2% JEEMA 2.3% and PPP 2%. It is not clear, however, what “trusting” a party means president Museveni should be equally happy because, among leaders, he enjoys the highest level of trust of Ugandans according to the survey.
Only traditional leaders and religious leaders are more trusted than Museveni. The president is trusted more than his ruling party; NRM, more than opposition political parties. Only 11% of respondents said they trust a lot. Another 27% said they trust them just a little. Up to 36% of respondents said they do not trust them at all.
Compare that with President Museveni who 39% of respondents said they trust a lot and another 44% said they either trust him some what or just a little. Only 14% said they do not trust Museveni at all.
When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the way president Museveni has performed his job over the past 12 month, 70% said they either approve or approve strongly. That was a year ago of course. But members of the Parliament got a 46% approval rating and local government councilors 53%.
In a positive for the opposition when asked to say whether they agree or disagree that Uganda’s opposition offers alternative vision, 64% of respondents agreed or agreed strongly
Religious leaders are the most trusted. Up to 60% trust them a lot 21% somewhat trust and 14% trust just a little. Only 5% do not trust at all. Up to 44% respondents said they trust traditional leaders a lot, 22% some what trust and 12% trust just a little bit. Significantly, 37% trust the UPDF a lot compared to 20% for police. Also 31% trust the NRM party a lot compared to 11% for opposition parties.
Electoral reforms wanted
Trust for the Electoral Commission is at a lowly 17% and a high 33% of respondents say they don’t trust it at all. Ugandans are very concerned about the lack of independence of the electro commission. According to the survey, when asked what the most important issue is that should be addressed a head of the 2026 general elections, most respondents at 30% mentioned. They said they want a non-partisan electoral commission to be appointed.
Other major concerns around elections include strengthening electoral include strengthening electoral laws, making laws against vote. buying tougher, and addressing issues with voter register.
Respondents also wanted declaring polling station results individually for better vote tally confidence, banning candidates convicted of vote – buying from future elections strengthening campaigns finance laws for political accountability and holding officials accountable for electoral offences.
Uganda’s generally express a high feeling of freedom related to the elections strengthening campaigns finance law for political accountability and holding officials accountable for electoral offences.
Ugandans generally express a high feeling of freedom related to the election period. According to the survey when asked how free they to say what they think, majority 83% said they are free. But only 50% said are completely free. Up to 11% said they are not very free.
The sense of freedom Ugandans feel when voting is possibly because feel when voting is possibly because it is a secret ballot and although there has been fear; especially in rural areas that officials know who votes how, there have not been reports of appraisals related to voting. When asked how likely do they think it is that powerful people can find out how one voted, even though there is supposed to be a secret ballot in this country, a majority 57% said it not likely at all, and 17% not very likely. Only 10% said it very like.
Political violence
Despite the reports of political violence and intimidation that fill news media during elections, Ugandans surprisingly do not feel threatened. When asked how much they personally feared becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence during the last national elections campaigns in 2021, the largest number of respondents at 49% said not at all.
Another 27% said they feared becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence somewhat or little bit. Only 21% said they feared it a lot.
Equally, when asked how on the whole they would rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election held in 2021, a whopping 70% said the elections were free and fair. Only 24% said the election were not free and fair. Up to 30% said the elections were completely free and fair with minor problems and 1.5 % that they were free and fair with majority problems.
Democracy and Politics
Ugandans are equally positive regarding their politics and democracy. When asked to what extent in their opinion is Uganda a democracy today up to 85% said Uganda’s democracy has major problems and 40% said it has minor problems. Only 14% said it has minor problems. Only 14% said it isa full democracy.
When asked to what extent they are satisfied with the way democracy works in Uganda, majority 53% said they are satisfied. Only 21% said they are not satisfied. The biggest number 45% said they are fairly satisfied and 12% very satisfied.
A whopping 88% said Ugandans should choose their leaders through regular open ad honest elections and rejected that since elections some times produce bad results the country should adopt other methods for choosing leaders.
The respondents appeared to agree almost unanimously on the issue of need for change in leadership. A slim majority 51% said democracy, it is better if power sometimes changes hands in elections from one political party to another.
But an equally large 48% said in democracy, as long as a government is elected by the people in a free and fair election, it does not matter if one party always wins and continuously governs the country
But according to the survey ,72% said the Constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum of two terms in office. They rejected the view that there should be no constitutional limit on how long the president can serve. Only 27% supported this view.
Equally 60% said the Uganda people’s Defence Force (UPDF) should never intervene in the country’s political process. Only 38% said it is legitimate for the armed forces to take control of the government when elected leaders abuse power for their own ends.
A huge majority of respondents 66% said once an election is over opposition parties and politicians should accept defeat and cooperate with government to help it develop the country. But 34% said after losing an election, opposition parties should monitor and criticize the government in order to hold it accountable.
Docile population
The survey revealed that Ugandans rarely participate in actions that people sometimes take as citizens. Up to 64% said they had not joined others in their community to request action from government in the last 12 months
According to the survey this community participation was the highest form of citizen participate. up to 36% of respondents said they had participated in some form of citizen activity to request action from government. only 5% said they do it once or twice.
But up to 91% said they have never contacted the media, like calling a radio programme or writing a letter to a newspaper. Up to 96% had not posted about politics or community affairs on social media. And 97% said they had not participated in a demonstration or protest march.
Up to 82% had not contacted their member of Parliament about some important problems or to give them their views, up to 79% had not contacted a political party official.
According to the survey, when Uganda’s have an important problem or want to make their views heard on an issue, they most easily contact their traditional leaders but this too is rare at just 28% most times they just stay away. only 18% contact their MPS just 23% contact their political party official.
Part of the explanation for the lack of participation by Ugandans in matter of governance is that the government and other official are largely not responsive to citizen concerns. According to the survey, up to 88% of respondents said elected officials should listen to voters’ view and do what they demand.
But only 15% of the respondents said their MPs try their best to listen to what ordinary people have to say. Member of district or city councils appear to do better than MPs according to the survey. But only 22% of respondents think so.
When asked what kind of society they would like to have in their country 56% said they should be able to join any organization whether or not the government should be able to ban any organization that goes against its policies. Only 43% of respondents sided with this view.
Most of the respondents 77% said many political parties are needed to make sure that Ugandans have real choice in who governs them. They rejected the view that political parties create division and confusion and it is therefore unnecessary to have many political parties in Uganda.
They also rejected the view that since the president was elected to lead the country he should not be bound by laws or court decision that he thinks are wrong. Instead, 74% said the president must always obey the laws and the court’s decision that he thinks they are wrong
According to the Afrobarometer survey, however, when asked how often in their opinion, the president ignores the courts and laws of this country only 14% said he often does. On the flip side 22% said the president never ignores the courts and laws of this country. Most respondents at 31% said he ignores the courts and laws of this country but rarely.
When asked how often in their opinion, are people treated unequally under the law in Uganda, the majority 85% said people are treated un equally. Up to 34% said n it happens all time ,31% often, in their opinion, officials who commit crimes go unpunished in Uganda up to 68% said it happen either always or often. Only 14% said it never happens and 21% that it happens rarely.
Problems government should address.
When asked what are the most important problems facing the country that government should address, most mentioned health education, and infrastructure (roads) and communication.
But money or poverty is also a majority concern. When asked whether, over the past year, they or anymore in their family had gone with out a cash income, a whopping 92% said had gone without a cash income.
The biggest number, 51%, said it happened either many times (26%) or several times (25%). Only 8% of respondent said they had never gone without a cash income.
when asked who they turn to for assistance to make ends meet. the majority at 55% said family 48% said friends and 18% said they return to a religious organization to make ends meet
When asked if they have a cash income job majority (57%) said they have no cash, job, another 18% said they have a part-time job. On 27% said they have a cash income Job.
When asked whether over the past year, they or any one in their family had gone without medicines or medical treatment the majority at 76% said they had.
The biggest number (24%), said they had gone with out medicine or medical treatment several times in the past 12 months,20% said it happened many times ,19% just once or twice and 13% said always they go with out medicine or medical treatment. Only 26% said they had never gone with out medicine or medical treatment
When asked to describe their current living condition, most respondent said they are either fairly bad at 30% or bad 19%. The other respondent (33%) said their living condition are fairly good or very good 9%
Equally, when asked to looking back and rate the current economic condition of this country compared to 12 months ago, most said things have become worse at 29% or much worse at 20%. Only 4% said the economy is much better while 26% said it is better.
When asked to rate their current living conditions compared to 12 months ago, 60% said they were either better 30%, much better 5%, or the same at 24%. Fewer respondents at 27% said they were worse and 14% much worse.
Also, when asked to look a head and say if they expect economic conditions in this country to be better or worse in 12 month, they majority 57% said the economic conditions will either remain the same at 15% get better at 34% or get much better at 8%
The Afrobarometer survey shows Ugandan are generally optimistic about their country, when asked whether the country is going in the wrong or the right direction 57% of respondents said it is going in the wrong direction were 42% but that was a year ago.
